“You cannot take Pakistan out of the Army and the Army cannot be taken out of Pakistan.”- Ikram Sehgal (Quote from almost 30 years ago and again in May 2023).
The ‘new old cold war’, which has already started, is going to be the ‘Information War’ on an exacerbated scale. It is based on perception and hyper reality; it will be outlined in media bids and divided amongst media houses on a much larger scale than previously done. It will cover the entire region of the Indo-Pacific and would include Pakistan as being a part of it but perhaps not being an epicenter as is usually imagined as. It is in this part that Pakistan rests in the way of a much coveted geo-political route; Eurasia. In all of the above comes a moment of self-recognition which will depend on the nation’s self-assessment and self-analysis, how it would like to present itself moving forward. Should the state decide or the average citizen for itself as to which political ideology should exist in Pakistan; a complete authoritarian state with transparency, or the hybrid one it has always portrayed as a front. It is here the ‘Information War’ will divvy the remains of the countrymen amongst what either side calls, “independent media” cells; each vying and lobbying for a political stance, all depending on who is funding the money.
This Information War is already utilizing every ounce of digital tech such as; AI, stealth technology, spyware and malware for the use of propaganda, disinfo, mis and malinformation. The effort to discredit what is now termed as old-school authors, any neutral writers or balanced senior analysts has been underway simultaneously in the same war of words. There is no place for neutrality or a space to give analytical perspectives. The most radicalized polarization of “with us or against us” is now underway for those who wish not to join any of the ranks. There is also that irony of backdating articles online to remain as premiere news forecasters remains now the bidding battleground to portray authenticity in order to say “I said it first.”
One can only remind– all of this was said twenty odd years ago on speaking about hybrid warfare. It was the same media units who decried the topic till only a few years ago. The words of so-called senior ‘experts’ in a public seminar in IBA were also the ones claiming that the port of Gwadar was a “figment of the imagination.”
For the population of Pakistan, one needs to understand that every breaking news is just going to be ‘disseminated’ information through one source and a set agenda. Whichever media or ideology one would like to sell its wares towards, there will lessen the ability for the average civilian to discern where it is coming from and make conscious decisions for itself. I would say let the media cells run their course without interference. They will do what they are paid for. One must decide for themselves where they stand as citizens of the state.
What is more vital is to understand the true narrative behind this. One must always consider the geo-political nature of Pakistan in the aspect to how it fits into a small but significant mechanism which is already being played out.
Pakistan’s nexus into Central Asia and Eurasia is significant be it a small piece of the greater region. However, there is a clear understanding that it can be skipped for another one as recently submitted by the G-20 summit and the India-ME-Europe Economic corridor in the making.
There are a few facts the upcoming generation must understand so it is no side-tracked by elements of confusion; 1) The Pakistan Army cannot be removed as the ruling elite power from the state of Pakistan. It has, as worded by the exiting COAS Bajwa, interfered in the political arena of the state for the past 70 years.
This is not to say the average civilian should not want a democratic system because that was the dream that would sold to them by its founding fathers.
2) This is not the Pakistan Jinnah envisioned. But then again without taking any sides, Jinnah was unable to foresee the wars that would be incoming in Pakistan’s future.
In no manner or way does acceptance of ground realities mean by any side that this is a pro-military stance. Acceptance here is the only step in the new age of transparency that is now being asked by the west of the Pakistanis.
3) Pakistan has never quite been a true democracy and is no ‘power struggle’ for as is being relayed.
What remains to be negotiated with is just this; whom will they crown as a leader for the forefront- not whom is apparently ‘fighting against’ the military. One cannot fight the military which owns the country and the west is already aware of this.
One would simultaneously caution the youth population of Pakistan and take into careful consideration of their own lives and families and not be sidetracked into an anti-military utterance. Not whilst living here at least. The problem with lobby teams is this they simply utilize the local population to push themes and agendas of disseminated information by exciting those who will foolishly follow a much bigger perception war at hand whilst sitting abroad.
Another consideration that must be studied is that given the physical wars we have been dragged into from Pakistan’s inception starting from the Kashmir War as early as 1947, to the Afghan war- there is no way the army will be a force to be removed from Pakistan, as is being sold.
From one side the TTP, TLP and ISIS-K will be the Frankenstein’s monsters that will keep encroaching, multiplying and repeat hit Pakistan. They must never have been indulged with by Pakistan through release and negotiations of several of their captured outfit members- but here we are. One must never forget the brutalities they have meted out to humanity- all carried out in the name of religion.
On another front, the Afghan Taliban don’t recognize the Durand line and never will. They will consistently remain ‘that problem’ for the Pakistanis. They are a constant threat in their double games and efforts to usurp Pakistan’s lands.
The Iranians with their terrorist activities never to be left behind without a good fight or create disruption in most spheres of whatever they touch, will keep at their encroachments in Balochistan.
Last but not least is India, which has landed on the moon and far surpassed Pakistan in every which way. Despite the people of the lands and the civilians wanting peace, one is always wary of a few extremist elements there within India who place statements of Pakistan as one day being amalgamated back as part of India.
These overtures, which threaten defense and national security will always keep Pakistan with its hackles up watching that LOC with its fluctuating ceasefires and mountainous borders to guard. And the army will guard against all of the above just as any other army of the world will.
All of these elements place Pakistan in a never-ending cycle of defense systems, buildup of a much underestimated and hyper-active intelligence and security mechanisms that have exceeded extremities. It is the same systems that are far too entrenched into the fabric of its flag to now dissolve.
There is no big American conspiracy that needs to be explored through populist politics being belted via lobbyists front. The anti-Biden and Trumpism are part of this perception war that is being sold to the people of Pakistan. One must always remember that the west’s Foreign policy for Pakistan rarely changes no matter who comes into power – on either side. The people of Pakistan should carefully consider the players in Pakistan will remain the same and so will the ruling elite.
What one can and should be wary of is the authoritarian influence in the Indo-Pacific region by Russian and Chinese regimes demands in the future. Pakistan should be the most cautious given their measures on those they suddenly feel fit to dominate. Their debt traps have waylaid many a nation and they are and will never be the friends one wants- rather investors in any country for their own demands.
The ‘iron-brothers’ have not lived up to the expectations as was once being touted and has revealed a much underdeveloped and overpromised Gwadar. There remains a port that is very much there for the taking and inactive projects for the years the previous government was there.
The ‘Information War’ unfortunately has sidelined and put a screen over any economic solutions and development into this region and kept a sinking nation manipulated into seeing a ‘good vs evil’ narrative.
In the recent past, Pakistan’s geo-political stop gap claim always pushed its importance as a top security agenda for world powers. It still remains in the way of the BRI route and there remains a push for China and Russian to include it in their agendas for their influence through their soft power or Asia-Pacific diplomacy maneuvering in the region of the Indo-Pacific. This must be curbed at all costs. And if one is bound into silence due to investments then one should at least recognize they are here for themselves.
One may disagree as a Pakistani looking forward to investments and funding- but there is an unease of their influence for world dominance. Pakistan, however, will never be able to change its neighbors and will constantly need to re-engage China on a need-based existence.
The G-20 summit releasing a forecast of another route which removes Pakistan as a nexus to Eurasia is only a sleight of hand. It can skip the route through a perceived lens, but Pakistan’s positioning geographically or with the power blocs of China-Russia will not diminish its significance in entirety for the route into Eurasia. No matter how many routes are ‘hand drawn,’ this one will remain, and Pakistan will not be missed by others.
Here, Pakistan will always have to be considered as a security concern as well. The same countries overtures (India, Iran, Afghan) and its own rising Islamist sentiments must be a security watch for all agendas including its own.
Which brings this to the efforts of the anti-military stance which is a hyperbole at most and at this time can still be dropped as a lobby stance. It is only riling up those who have failed to recognize it as part of a political play.
Imran Khan, PDM and any other parties before or after will be part of the same construct.
My family and I will certainly disagree on this one essential of who is the more honest man to lead Pakistan. Here I opine that the problem with Imran Khan is that he will gravitate towards whom he feels will give him the immediate power structure. He is not the stable leader/hybrid project for the people but millions will not agree with this one opinion.
As wonderful as it sounds to sell the idea that Imran Khan ‘got rid’ of the military or won the fight for freedom. This is what perception versus reality will do for the many.
Pakistan must develop into the BRI route and encourage all stakeholders and investments- from all countries. The US reengagement and visit in Gwadar by the Ambassador is encouraging. The ‘U.S – Pakistan Green Alliance’ framework which develops into energy, water and economic needs is an excellent sign for Pakistan in terms of future developments.
Pakistan at all costs for its survival, should do what it takes to appease all western fronts and allies whilst keeping its diplomatic agreements in place and building better relations based on true International Relations on transparent grounds with the superpowers.
This is an opportune moment for the people who run the country to realize that the middle income strata of the country must be engaged, educated and uplifted. This is the only criticism that would be in place for any party that comes into power and its ruling elite; to reconsider and invest in the human capital of one of the most populous countries in the world. This, the ruling elite have never done even when they do have the capability, power structure, and budget to do so.
If Pakistan is able to recognize itself as what it truly is with transparency and focus on the millions in the middle of a power struggle, Pakistan can be a force to be reckoned with. It will be a slow build but can be done over the next twenty years.
But the first steps to acceptance as I have once previously written, is the acceptance of the problem without the harsh rebuttal and shutdown of advice for transparency. How Pakistan would want to position itself and as what as is something that must be done with decisiveness before the country disintegrates into playing hybrid systems which have never been able to execute what they were set up to do.
